COMMODITY Market Outlook Oct 31- Nov 4, 2011

Key economic data’s are expected next week which includes the FOMC rate decision and Nonfarm payrolls from US and ECB interest rate announcement from the Euro Zone.

GOLD : -

 Gold even the broad positive trend is intact, buying trend looks exhausted after the recent runs and prices likely to take a dip towards 27250 regions before the next swing higher. But unlikely to set off a major sell off unless below 27200, such initiative would lead the prices pointing towards 27000 then to 26850. A direct rise above 27700 regions could rejuvenate buying interest targeting 28000/28250/28800/29250.

SILVER:  -

Upcoming Week session 58600-59000 likely to act as a strong resistance, inability to surpass the range could dilute the hopes for a rise and prices may come down to around 54500/55400. Rallies above 59000 with volume would be signal of continuation of further uptrend level 60500/61800/62300

Base Metals: 

COPPER: -

Market sentiments continued to be on a positive side buoyed by the Euro rescue deal and encouraging economic indicators from US.

 Weekly’s bias should largely stay positive as long as prices stay above 388, but it would be required to trade consistently above 404 to invite fresh bargain hunting. Close below 385 likely be a sign of prolong selling again.

 NICKEL: -

 Upcoming week session main support of nickel is 958/955. If this level holds so drift higher to 1005. Above 1005 we will see 1025/1040. A turn lower below 955 expect to extend the sell off again.

Lead: 

 After a sharp fall from 119, short covering rally is on the process for the last couple of weeks, but upside is capped at 101 levels. If prices able to break the same, uptrend may see towards 101.80 then 102.50/105.20 levels in the near term. Conversely below 96 weakness is seen towards 94/93 levels.

 ZINC:  

 Bounce back rally is on the way, after it fell to 86, but horizontal resistance is capped at 95.5 region for the day. If prices able to break above the same, bulls may push the prices towards 98.50 then 101.50  levels in the immediate run. On the lower side, 93 is the support breaks below the same, downtrend may see towards 92.15 then 90.15 levels.

  

ALUMINIMUM:-

 In upcoming session if 109 hold this levels so, we see immediate target is 112/115 levels.

CRUDE OIL:-

Last week we have seen Japan inventory which wasn’t favourable for crude oil upside. Overall trend of crude oil is bullish we may expected 4770/4900 levels. If crude oil  holds 4500 level so, see good rally in this counter.  If 4430 holds below we will see fresh selling position or you can say fresh bargain hunting starts in the counter.

Rupa Mehta

Sr. Analyst Commodity - Research & Education

WELLINDIA Group